# Adaptive Threshold It helps detect anomalies in performance metrics by automatically learning patterns and setting dynamic thresholds, instead of relying on fixed, static values. It is part of the Prediction engine and is particularly useful for identifying unusual behavior in real-time monitoring data. Adaptive Thresholds are **model-generated** limits that define what is considered "normal" for each metric over time. Instead of using a fixed value (like 80% for all metrics), the system learns from historical data and sets a **custom threshold for each hour** of each day. This ensures better accuracy in detecting genuine anomalies while reducing noise, especially in environments with varying traffic patterns, workloads, or seasonal behavior. ## **How Adaptive Threshold is Created** **Data Collection** The system regularly collects performance metrics (polled data) (e.g., every 5 minutes). **Model Training** The short-term prediction model is trained using the **last 30 days of historical data**, which is aggregated at an hourly level. This model generates adaptive thresholds for identifying anomalies in real time. **Window Forecasting** The model predicts usage for the **next 2 weeks**, broken down **hour by hour**. **Threshold Generation** For each hour, the system generates the following dynamic thresholds: * **Polled Data** – Actual collected data from the resource. * **Lower Band** – Minimum expected value. * **Upper Band** – Maximum expected value. * **Critical Upper Band** – A stricter upper threshold for flagging critical anomalies. These thresholds help the system determine normal vs. abnormal behavior for each time window. ## **How It Works** Adaptive Thresholds use short-term **time-series prediction models** that learn usage patterns over time. Key concepts include: * **Trend detection –** Identifies regular increase/decrease patterns. * **Hourly profiling –** Learns a "normal" value for each specific hour. * **Upper and lower bounds –** Represent a statistical confidence range. * **Model refresh –** Rebuilt every 7 days using the latest data. The system avoids overfitting or underfitting by using a balanced model sensitivity. ## **What do you see on the screen** The **Adaptive Threshold** screen displays a performance graph that visually compares actual system behavior against dynamically learned threshold ranges. The graph provides a real-time, hour-by-hour overview of how a metric (e.g., CPU, memory, interface utilization) performs relative to predicted safe zones. **Adaptive Threshold |** Basic Details
LabelActionDescription / Example
Polled DataDisplays actual usageBlue line showing real-time performance values collected at intervals.
Lower BandShows the minimum predicted valueBottom boundary of the threshold range. Values below this are considered anomalies.
Upper BandShows the maximum predicted valueTop boundary of the expected range. Values above this may indicate a warning or anomaly.
Critical Upper BandFlags high-risk upper thresholdStricter limit above the Upper Band used to detect critical-level anomalies.
Red MarkersHighlights anomaliesAppears when actual data goes outside the threshold bands.
Filters
Current Month Time filter Displays data from today to the end of the current month.
Next MonthTime filterDisplays projected threshold behavior for the following month.
Next 3 MonthsTime filterShows threshold forecasts and anomalies across the next 90 days.
Next 6 MonthTime filter

Displays long-term prediction and anomaly trend for up to 180 days.

**Adaptive Threshold |** Basic Details This provides a detailed view of predicted thresholds and anomalies for each timestamp.
LabelDescription / Example
TimeTimestamp for each data point (e.g., May 18, 2025 12:00 AM).
Upper BandThe maximum expected value for the metric at that time (e.g., 8.37%).
Lower BandThe minimum expected value for the time slot (e.g., 6.19%).
Critical Upper BandA stricter limit highlights critical anomalies (e.g., 9.47%).
AnomalyIndicates whether the actual value exceeded thresholds (e.g., 20%).
Toggle: Show Only AnomaliesFilters the table to display only rows where anomalies are detected.
{% hint style="info" %} **Export** The adaptive threshold graph can be downloaded as a **PDF**, while the **adaptive threshold Data** table can be exported in **CSV format** for detailed offline review or further processing. {% endhint %} **Note**
FeatureForecastPrediction
FocusLong-term trends (1–6 months)Short-term anomalies (1–4 weeks)
Use CaseCapacity planningAnomaly detection
OutputGraphs and capacity reportsAdaptive thresholds and alerts